Minnesota Lynx W vs New York Liberty W

Match Analysis

Minnesota edges New York in overall power—82 to 81—and both the ratings and the market agree on this slight preference for the Lynx. The market's implied probability of 69% for Minnesota sits well above New York's 31%, but that confidence rests on a marginal ratings edge. I'd say the gap between these two teams feels smaller than the betting odds suggest, since the overall power ratings separate them by just one point. The offensive picture tilts toward New York, who rate 88 to Minnesota's 86, yet Minnesota's defensive advantage of 57 to 50 and dominance rating of 89 to 84 stack in their favour. Minnesota also holds a five-point lead in consistency (27 to 22), though both teams score low here—a sign of unpredictability from either side. New York's pedigree (71 to 54) and drama (75 to 63) both substantially exceed Minnesota's, reflecting different profiles rather than different quality. Head-to-head over ten matches reads level at 5–5, though Minnesota lead the recent five at 3–2. The Lynx have won three of their last five overall and impressively gone 4–1 in recent away matches, while New York have also taken three from five but stumbled to 1–2 away from home in that span. I can't ignore that New York's home form—4–1 from five—looks solid, which may be why the market prices them as underdogs despite defensive and consistency gaps that genuinely favour Minnesota. These teams know how to trouble each other.

A descriptive read of our own ratings against the market — not a prediction.