“Predictions” on LINECHOES are not betting tips, and they are not a machine-learning model or human opinion. Every confidence %, implied win %, vig figure, and Kelly stake shown on the site is the direct output of four real, publicly-documented formulas run against live sportsbook odds. Here is exactly how each number is calculated.
P = 1 / Decimal Odds
The raw win probability a posted price implies. A decimal price of 2.00 implies a 50% chance; 1.50 implies 66.7%. This figure still includes the bookmaker's built-in margin, so on its own it slightly overstates the true chance.
Margin = (Σ 1/Odds) − 1
Add up the implied probability of every outcome in a market and the total always exceeds 100%. That excess is the sportsbook's built-in edge — the “vig” (also called juice or overround) — shown in the Vig column of the Bookmaker Line Shop. A tighter margin means a fairer price.
Fair(i) = (1/Odds_i) / Σ(1/Odds)
Dividing each outcome's implied probability by that same sum cancels the margin out. What remains is the market's real consensus estimate — the fair probability — and it is what drives every “confidence %” shown across the site.
f* = (b · p − q) / b
The Kelly Criterion gives the fraction of a bankroll that maximizes long-run growth when a price offers a genuine value edge. Here b is the net decimal odds (the price minus 1), p is the No-Vig fair win probability from step 3, and q = 1 − p.
The board evaluates each sportsbook's price separately and shows a stake % only when that price beats fair value — that is, when its implied probability (step 1) is below the No-Vig fair probability (step 3). That gap is a real positive edge, and Kelly returns a positive stake, shown in green (e.g. +2.4%).
When a price offers no such edge — its implied probability is at or above the fair probability — the formula returns zero or a negative number, and the column simply reads “no edge”. Because the fair probability comes from the whole market's consensus, typically only the sharpest, most generous prices on a side show a Kelly stake, while the rest read “no edge.” In effect, the column points you to which book currently offers the best value on your pick — never a suggestion to bet.
Separate from the odds math above, LineChoes also publishes a proprietary set of long-term team ratings, built from 10 seasons of league data across Europe's top divisions and their second tiers. They describe a club's quality, style and trend — they are not odds, probabilities or predictions. Here is what each rating measures:
Overall Strength — Long-term overall quality, from points, goal difference and finishing position.
Attack / Defense — How the club scores and prevents goals, relative to its league.
Dominance — How commandingly they win — win rate, goal difference and points combined.
Consistency — How steady their results are season to season (higher = more reliable).
Pedigree — Historical standing — titles, top-four and top-six finishes over the decade.
Entertainment — How high-scoring and open their games tend to be.
Global Rating — Overall Strength measured against every major European league, not just one country.
This is informational and educational content only — a transparent explanation of the math behind the numbers on this site, not personalized betting advice. Please see the Responsible Gaming resources in the footer for support.