Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Match Analysis

The ratings and market are pulling in opposite directions here. Green Bay holds a clear edge in overall power at 74 to 63, and that advantage stretches across multiple dimensions—the Packers lead on offense by 14 points, defense by 4, dominance by 8, and pedigree by 18. Minnesota's sole ratings strength is consistency, where they lead 73 to 63. Yet the market has priced Minnesota as the slight favourite at 52 per cent implied probability to Green Bay's 48 per cent. I'd flag that disagreement as the story of this matchup. Recent form sharpens the puzzle. Minnesota comes in on a five-match winning run—all five from their last five overall—though their away record is softer at 2 wins from 4. Green Bay, by contrast, has lost five straight across all competitions, a collapse that sits uneasily with a ratings profile that still ranks them 11 points clear. At home the Packers show 2 wins from 3 matches, suggesting their troubles run deeper on the road: just 1 win from 5 away. In the head-to-head over their last five meetings, Minnesota hold 3 wins to 2, with the most recent result a dominant 16–3 Vikings victory. The tension here is real. Green Bay's ratings say they're the better team by a meaningful margin. Minnesota's form—that five-match streak—combined with their recent record against this opponent and the market's lean toward them, tells a different story about who's playing better right now. That gap between what the ratings show and what the market prices is worth watching closely.

A descriptive read of our own ratings against the market — not a prediction.