Alaves Host Villarreal at Estadio de Mendizorroza

Match Analysis

Villarreal hold a commanding ratings advantage across virtually every dimension. Their overall strength of 65 against Alaves's 34 reflects a 31-point gap, underpinned by superior attack (67 vs 28), defense (61 vs 52), dominance (58 vs 25), and consistency (62 vs 48). Alaves's only relative strength lies in consistency, where they trail by just 14 points. Villarreal's drama rating of 83 versus Alaves's 41 signals higher volatility in their performances. The market's implied probabilities—Villarreal at 39%, Alaves at 34%, and a draw at 27%—align closely with the ratings gap. Villarreal are favored but not overwhelmingly so at 2.38 decimal odds, reflecting genuine uncertainty despite their superior profile. The 5-point probability edge mirrors their ratings dominance but stops short of pricing them as heavy favorites, suggesting the market acknowledges Alaves's defensive solidity and recent upturn in form. Recent head-to-head results complicate the picture moderately. Of the five most recent meetings, Alaves have won two, drawn two, and lost one, including a 1-0 victory in March 2025 and a 1-1 draw as recently as March 2026. Their last five matches show WWWDL form—three wins in their most recent four outings—whereas Villarreal's DWWLW shows one loss in the same window. Despite Villarreal's structural superiority in attack and dominance, Alaves's recent resilience and head-to-head record suggest they remain competitive in direct encounters, even if the ratings and market both expect Villarreal to prevail overall.

An objective read of long-term data and odds — not a prediction or betting advice.