SV Wehen Host Bayer Leverkusen at BRITA-Arena

Match Analysis

# SV Wehen vs Bayer Leverkusen – DFB Pokal The ratings reveal an enormous structural gap. Bayer Leverkusen's overall strength of 68 dwarfs SV Wehen's 9, with particularly stark differences in defense (82 versus 29) and dominance (63 versus 10). Wehen's sole standout metric is consistency at 100, suggesting reliable form within their pyramid level, yet their attack (9) and overall quality remain severely limited. Leverkusen's attack rating of 52 is moderate—not dominant—but their defensive solidity and control metrics leave little doubt about the matchup's structural reality. The market pricing is emphatic and broadly consistent with the ratings. Leverkusen's decimal odds of 1.15 imply an 83 percent win probability, while Wehen's 14.0 odds reflect just 7 percent. This gap reflects the 59-point swing in overall strength ratings. The draw probability of 10 percent (9.25 odds) acknowledges cup football's inherent unpredictability, though Leverkusen's 43 consistency rating—their weakest dimension—hints at occasional lapses. Recent form adds modest nuance. Leverkusen have won four of their last five (LWWWW), with only one loss, showing solid recent momentum. Wehen's record (LLWLW) is mixed, featuring two losses and two wins, consistent with their limited overall profile. Neither team's recent results materially challenge the ratings or market consensus. The structural disparity, the market's confidence, and recent performances all point the same direction: Leverkusen are overwhelming favorites, though cup football ensures a non-zero probability of surprise.

An objective read of long-term data and odds — not a prediction or betting advice.