Chicago Sky W vs Washington Mystics W

Match Analysis

Chicago Sky W's offence is genuinely dangerous—a 78 rating gives them a six-point edge over Washington Mystics W—but everything else tilts toward the visitors. Washington's defence is 16 points higher, their consistency 32 points higher, and they lead overall power by just two points despite Chicago's scoring threat. The ratings favour Washington, and the market agrees: the Mystics are priced at 59 per cent implied probability to Chicago's 41 per cent. Both sets of numbers point the same way. Head-to-head, the Mystics have had Chicago's measure decisively. Over 10 meetings, Washington has won 8 to Chicago's 2; in the last five, it's 4-1 to Washington. Of the five most recent matchups, only one went Chicago's way—a 78-64 win on 6 August 2025. The others have been emphatic Mystics victories: 90-72, 103-86, 81-79 and 79-72. I'd say that pattern holds weight here, given that Chicago's recent form away from home shows just 1 win from 5 matches across that same five-game stretch, and Washington has won three of their last five on the road. Chicago's home record is stronger at 3 wins from 5, but this is an away fixture for them. I keep coming back to Chicago's defensive vulnerability. At 37, they sit 16 points below Washington's 53, and a Mystics offence rated 72 has the tools to exploit that gap. Washington's consistency rating of 68 versus Chicago's 36 suggests they won't shoot themselves in the foot, either. The Mystics' higher dominance rating and superior recent record in head-to-head meetings make this a familiar script.

A descriptive read of our own ratings against the market — not a prediction.