Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Match Analysis

Denver's ratings advantage is substantial across most dimensions. The Broncos lead in overall power by 14 points, dominance by 15, and most strikingly on defense where they're up 34 points over Jacksonville. The Jaguars do edge them on offense by 3 points, but that's their lone bright spot in the ratings breakdown. I'd say Denver's consistency rating of 46 versus Jacksonville's 11 is particularly telling—that 35-point gap suggests the Broncos are far more reliable week to week. Bookmakers are offering 1.65 on the Broncos and 2.30 on the Jaguars, which aligns with what the ratings show: both point to Denver as the stronger team. Head-to-head history complicates things slightly. Over seven meetings, Denver leads 4-3, though Jacksonville has stolen two of the last five matchups. I'd highlight that December meeting where Jacksonville won 34-20—that's recent enough to matter. Still, Denver's 3-2 record in the last five encounters keeps the overall edge in their favor. Jacksonville's recent form has been genuinely impressive: they're 4-1 over their last five games with three straight wins on the road. Working through these numbers, I notice that Denver, despite the rating edge, has stumbled to 3-2 overall in that same stretch and are just 2-1 away from home. The ratings heavily favor Denver, the market agrees, but Jacksonville's hot streak and that recent head-to-head victory remind us why these teams still have to play the game.

A descriptive read of our own ratings against the market — not a prediction.