New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers

Match Analysis

The ratings paint a stark picture: Green Bay dominates almost every dimension. The Packers lead in overall power 74 to 1, with similar margins in offense (67 to 1), defense (78 to 7), and dominance (74 to 1). They also hold advantages in pedigree (49 to 1) and drama (38 to 15). The Jets' one bright spot is consistency, where they lead 84 to 63—a 21-point edge that stands out against the broader gap. The market, offering Green Bay at 69 per cent implied probability to the Jets' 31 per cent, aligns with those ratings. Both point the same way. Here's what complicates it: both teams are in freefall. The Jets have lost all 5 recent matches overall, though they've managed 1 win from 3 at home. The Packers have also lost 5 straight overall, but their home record is stronger at 2 wins from 3. Away from home, Green Bay has won just 1 from 5. The Jets' consistency rating is genuinely high, yet they're losing consistently. That's the puzzle—a 21-point consistency advantage that hasn't translated to actual results. Head-to-head, Green Bay leads 3 wins to 1 from 4 meetings. The Jets did beat them 27-10 in 2022, but that's their only win in the series. I'd flag that the ratings gap is enormous and the market reflects it, but both teams are struggling. Green Bay's home record keeps them favored; the Jets' consistency rating keeps the matchup from being a complete mismatch on paper.

A descriptive read of our own ratings against the market — not a prediction.