Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins

Match Analysis

The ratings paint a stark picture of disparity. Miami leads Las Vegas across virtually every dimension: overall power (43 versus 12), offense (45 to 10), defense (37 to 18), and dominance (45 to 12). Las Vegas's only relative strength is consistency, rated 71 compared to Miami's 60, suggesting the Raiders maintain a steadier baseline despite their lower ceiling. Miami's pedigree (22) and drama (41) both substantially exceed Las Vegas's (8 and 17), reflecting higher organizational stability and recent profile. The offensive gap of 35 points and defensive gap of 19 points are particularly pronounced; this is not a close matchup on paper. The market reflects this imbalance. Miami's decimal odds of 1.41 imply a 70.9% win probability, while Las Vegas at 2.50 implies 29.1%. This closely mirrors the ratings' assessment of Miami's superiority and aligns with both teams' recent trajectory. Miami's slight consistency disadvantage relative to overall power suggests occasional volatility, though their recent record (LWLLW) shows two wins in five games. Las Vegas's consistency rating, conversely, masks a collapse in performance: their form reads WLLLL, one win in five games. Head-to-head history strongly reinforces Miami's dominance. The Dolphins lead 8-2 all-time and have won four of the last five meetings, including a decisive 34-19 victory on November 17, 2024. Las Vegas's only recent win came nearly three years ago in Week 3 of 2021. Both the ratings and market probability align decisively in Miami's favour, and the recent record—particularly Las Vegas's four-game losing streak—compounds the structural gap between these teams.

A descriptive read of our own ratings against the market — not a prediction.