Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions

Match Analysis

Brisbane Lions' dominance over Hawthorn in the ratings is almost total. The Lions lead across every dimension: 29 points in overall power, 38 in offense, 27 in dominance, and most starkly, 71 points in consistency. Hawthorn's defense is credible at 79, only 5 points behind Brisbane's 84, but that's the only category where the gap tightens. The market and the ratings align here—both favour Brisbane at roughly the same margin, with the Lions at 52 per cent implied probability to Hawthorn's 48. The head-to-head record is unambiguous. Hawthorn has lost all three meetings against Brisbane, including last season when they went down by 39 points. That's a complete absence of form against this opponent, though it's worth separating the head-to-head from how each side is trending now. Brisbane's recent form over five matches is 4 wins and 1 loss; Hawthorn's over the same span is 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. I'd say the consistency gap in the ratings—71 points—speaks to something deeper than a streaky run. Brisbane have won all four of their recent matches at home; Hawthorn have only 2 wins from 3 home games lately. On their travels, the picture inverts: Hawthorn's 4 wins from 5 away games contrasts sharply with Brisbane's 2 wins from 4 away. The Lions' fragility on the road doesn't cancel the gap between the teams, but it does sketch where Hawthorn's only real avenue sits.

A descriptive read of our own ratings against the market — not a prediction.