Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks

Match Analysis

The ratings and the market align here: both see Fremantle Dockers as the clear favourites. The Dockers lead on overall power by 15 points (85 to 70), with a decisive advantage in defense of 26 points (100 to 74). They also dominate on the dominance rating at 87 versus Hawthorn's 72. The Hawks' sole edge comes in offense, where they lead by just 4 points (64 to 60). What strikes me is the gap between the teams' defensive ratings. Fremantle's defense at 100 is not just better than Hawthorn's 74—it's as strong as the ratings go. That difference alone shapes the contest. The Dockers also hold a consistency advantage of 9 points (41 to 32), though neither side rates high in this dimension. Hawthorn, by contrast, leads dramatically on drama (51 to 1), a quirk that doesn't flow through to their overall power or odds. Head-to-head, Fremantle has swept the recent matchups—2 wins from 2 meetings—with scorelines of 88-73 and 77-64. Both sides have identical recent overall form of 4 wins from 5 matches over their last five outings, but Fremantle's home record stands out: 5 wins from 5 matches at their ground. Hawthorn's away form is stronger than Fremantle's (3 wins from 4 versus 1 win from 3), though the Dockers' home dominance may limit what the Hawks can do on the road here.

A descriptive read of our own ratings against the market — not a prediction.