Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows

Match Analysis

Brisbane Lions lead Adelaide Crows across nearly every dimension. The Lions rate at 100 for overall power, offense, dominance and consistency; the Crows sit at 71, 69, 73 and 28 respectively. The gap in consistency is staggering—a 72-point difference—and the offense split is 31 points. Defense is the only close contest: Brisbane 83, Adelaide 80, a 3-point margin. Both the ratings and the betting market align on Brisbane. The market prices the Lions at 70 per cent implied probability against the Crows' 30 per cent. I'd flag that the Lions' form underpins their numbers: 4 wins from their last 5 matches across the competition, and a perfect 4-0 at home over the same stretch. Adelaide's consistency rating of 28 makes sense when you look at their recent sequence—3 wins and 2 losses from 5. The head-to-head record is split 1-1 across 2 meetings, though Brisbane's most recent encounter was a 52-point rout in April. I can't get past the consistency gap as the real tell here. The Crows have swung between form and collapse; the Lions have sustained the top level across every match counted. Brisbane's home record—unbeaten over the last four—sits against Adelaide having won 3 from their last 4 away matches, so Adelaide's away form is not the vulnerability it might appear. Still, the Crows' overall consistency rating of 28 against the Lions' 100 reflects exactly the kind of volatility that costs matches at this level.

A descriptive read of our own ratings against the market — not a prediction.